Market Commentary & Insights
Brazil's GDP Expected to Rise Moderately in 2012 Amid Strong Fundamentals
BNY Mellon ARX expects healthy year-over-year growth of 3.5% for Brazil in 2012, with strong domestic demand, low unemployment and range-bound inflation.
Global Market Outlook
Anticipating another year of volatile markets, investment professionals from across BNY Mellon Asset Management's specialist boutiques present their views on areas of opportunities and potential downside risks in our 2012 Global Market Outlook.
Economic Update - December 2011
BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard B. Hoey shares his global economic outlook for 2012, predicting global real GDP growth of about 3%, with disparate regional growth trends.
Diverging Paths for Global Credit Markets
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins looks at the potential contagion effects of what he sees as a likely eurozone recession in 2012.
Perspectives for Global Fixed Income: Losing Faith in the U.S. Dollar?
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins argues there is no viable alternative to the US dollar for the world's reserve currency at present, but that the dollar's dominance is likely to erode and gradually yield to a basket of several reserve currencies, with implications for capital markets.
Economic Update - October 2011
BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard B. Hoey shares his latest perspectives on the global economy.
View from Europe: Uncertainty Batters European Corporate Bonds
WestLB Mellon Asset Management discusses the recent steep fall-off in European investment grade and high yield bonds as sovereign debt and recession concerns fueled uncertainty and battered risk assets.
Somber International Banking Conference Focuses on Downside Risks to Global Economy
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins summarizes the views of leading international bankers and policymakers at a recent meeting discussing Eurozone debt and downside risks to global growth.
Weighing Possible Outcomes for Eurozone Debt Problems
As the risk of a Greek default rises, Standish's Tom Higgins draws various scenarios for the Eurozone, along with their potential economic and market consequences.
Time to Let Go? Greek Debt and the Eurozone
Newton's Paul Brain looks at the options remaining in dealing with Greece's sovereign debt problems and argues it might be time to consider letting Greece leave the eurozone.
Impact from Recent Market Turmoil: A Macroeconomic Outlook
Mellon Capital's asset allocation strategist Jonathan Xiong discusses the larger macroeconomic context behind this summer's market volatility.
Double Dip for Europe and US a Coin Toss
Standish's Global Market Strategist Tom Higgins believes there is a 50% probability of recession in the U.S. and Europe, calling Europe's piecemeal approach to the sovereign debt crisis the greatest systemic risk to the global economy.
US Housing Still Weak Amid High Joblessness and Distressed Sales
The Structured Products Group at Standish discusses the latest US housing numbers and forecasts continued weakness in the market amid high joblessness and distressed selling.
Economic Outlook - September 2011
BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard B. Hoey shares his latest perspectives on the global economy.
Emerging Asia Growth Prevails as Inflation Worries Abate
Hamon Investment Group discuss economic and market developments across emerging Asia for the second half of 2011, arguing that tightening measures aimed at managing inflation without choking off growth seem to be working.
Diversifying Into Global Bonds and Currencies Amid Uncertainty
Newton's Paul Brain discusses how concerns about sovereign debt credit quality might be addressed by diversifying into global bonds and currencies and by avoiding market-cap-based indices overweighting the most heavily indebted issuers.
Potential Impact of U.S. Credit Downgrade on Fixed Income Markets
Investment professionals from Standish discuss S&P's downgrade of the U.S. government's debt and its potential effects on different segments of the fixed income markets.
Understanding and Responding to the Debt Ceiling Debate
Mellon Capital's Global Investment Strategist Lowell Bennett discusses the US debt ceiling debate and the market implications of a possible credit downgrade.
Fixed Income Absolute Return Amid Sovereign Debt Uncertainty
Paul Brain, Newton's investment leader for fixed income, and Colm McDonagh, head of emerging market fixed income at Insight, discuss the potential benefits of fixed income absolute return approaches against the backdrop of low interest rates, heightened market volatility, and sovereign debt concerns.
Potential Implications of a U.S. Credit Event
Investment professionals from Standish believe the U.S. Congress will ultimately raise the debt ceiling, but discuss the potential implications of a credit default on the US economy and global financial markets.
U.S. Economy Likely to Bounce Back in the Second Half of 2011
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins calls the first quarter slowdown in the U.S. economy a soft patch and expects a bounce back in the second half of the year.
Global Economic Expansion Sustainable Despite Recent Slowdown
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins sets recently lowered growth expectations for the U.S. economy against more positive indicators such as healthy corporate profits, gradually improving labor markets and accommodative monetary policy.
Economic Outlook - June 2011
BNY Mellon Chief Economist Dick Hoey shares his latest views on the sustainability of global economic growth.
Bond Alchemy: Conjuring Solutions to Sovereign Debt Problems
Paul Brain, Newton's investment leader for fixed income, discusses the possibility of Brady-bond-type instruments to address Europe's continuing sovereign debt problems.
Economic Outlook - May 2011
BNY Mellon's Chief Economist Dick Hoey presents his May 2011 macroeconomic update.
Delicate Balance Required Between Growth and Policy Normalization
Standish Global Market Strategist Tom Higgins advises policymakers in the U.S. and Europe to proceed with caution as they lift some of the emergency measures introduced during the financial crisis and recession, as they have little ammunition left to battle renewed weakness in aggregate demand.
Emerging Markets Go Micro: EM Investing Amid Inflation and Margin Issues
TBCAM's Andrea Clark argues that the risk trade in emerging market equities of the last two years is evolving into a more selective approach to investing. Amid inflation and corporate profit margin issues, she says that many emerging markets are facing challenges that might have a strong impact on individual company performance.
Oil Prices Rises Increase Growth Uncertainties
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins argues that the global economy can absorb the recent rise in oil prices, especially as developed economies have become less energy intensive. However, if civil unrest were to spread to other oil producers such as Iran or Saudi Arabia, a further surge in oil prices could seriously undermine growth.
The U.S. Municipal Market: Oncoming Train or Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Given the broad-brush headlines about dire state and local finances and the possible effects on the municipal bond markets, Standish's Tax-Sensitive Fixed Income team argues for a differentiated view across muni market segments as well as across prevailing state and local government conditions.