Global Markets
Brazil's GDP Expected to Rise Moderately in 2012 Amid Strong Fundamentals
BNY Mellon ARX expects healthy year-over-year growth of 3.5% for Brazil in 2012, with strong domestic demand, low unemployment and range-bound inflation.
Rising Uncertainty for China
Standish comments on China's challenges transitioning from an export-driven model of growth to one based more on domestic consumption, while seeking to reform its financial system and social safety net.
Global Market Outlook
Anticipating another year of volatile markets, investment professionals from across BNY Mellon Asset Management's specialist boutiques present their views on areas of opportunities and potential downside risks in our 2012 Global Market Outlook.
Diverging Paths for Global Credit Markets
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins looks at the potential contagion effects of what he sees as a likely eurozone recession in 2012.
Perspectives for Global Fixed Income: Losing Faith in the U.S. Dollar?
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins argues there is no viable alternative to the US dollar for the world's reserve currency at present, but that the dollar's dominance is likely to erode and gradually yield to a basket of several reserve currencies, with implications for capital markets.
Emerging Markets as ASTERISCS
Standish's Alexander Kozhemiakin discusses a new way to think about the universe of investments traditionally known as emerging markets, offering the concept of "assets tied to economies of risky countries," or ASTERISCS, as a potentially more helpful guide.
Time to Let Go? Greek Debt and the Eurozone
Newton's Paul Brain looks at the options remaining in dealing with Greece's sovereign debt problems and argues it might be time to consider letting Greece leave the eurozone.
Diversifying Into Global Bonds and Currencies Amid Uncertainty
Newton's Paul Brain discusses how concerns about sovereign debt credit quality might be addressed by diversifying into global bonds and currencies and by avoiding market-cap-based indices overweighting the most heavily indebted issuers.
Emerging Asia Growth Prevails as Inflation Worries Abate
Hamon Investment Group discuss economic and market developments across emerging Asia for the second half of 2011, arguing that tightening measures aimed at managing inflation without choking off growth seem to be working.
Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt: Capitalizing on Improved Sovereign Fundamentals
Standish makes the case for investing in local currency emerging market bonds, citing improved sovereign fundamentals, diversification benefits and the potential for generating equity-like returns without taking on direct equity risk.
Investing in Debt: Opportunities in Secured Bank Loans
Alcentra make the case for investing in secured bank loans, arguing that the highest new issue credit spreads and strongest deal structures in over a decade offer historic opportunities to seek absolute returns in high single digits.
Eurozone Partners Likely to Stay in Marriage for Better or Worse
With sovereign debt problems casting doubts on the future of the eurozone, Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins says a break-up of the European marriage is unlikely, since both the fiscally weaker and stronger members have interests in keeping it alive. However, structural reforms are needed to ensure greater fiscal discipline.
Emerging Markets Go Micro: EM Investing Amid Margin and Inflation Issues
TBCAM's Andrea Clark argues that the risk trade in emerging market equities of the last two years is evolving into a more selective approach to investing. Amid inflation and corporate profit margin issues, she says that many emerging markets are facing challenges that might have a strong impact on individual company performance.
The Power of Dividends: Global Income Equity Investing
Amid modest return expectations for most major asset classes, James Harries of Newton discusses why investors are rediscovering the potential power of reinvested dividends as an important part of the pursuit of long-term total returns. Focusing on dividend yields, he says, can also be a useful barometer for identifying outperforming companies with efficient capital allocation and cash flow management.
Oil Prices Rises Increase Growth Uncertainties
Standish Global Macro Strategist Tom Higgins argues that the global economy can absorb the recent rise in oil prices, especially as developed economies have become less energy intensive. However, if civil unrest were to spread to other oil producers such as Iran or Saudi Arabia, a further surge in oil prices could seriously undermine growth.
The Impact of Japan's Crisis on the Global Power Supply and Beyond
The Boston Company looks at the possible spillover effects from Japan's recent crises on global energy markets, basic materials markets and manufacturing.
Expanding the Opportunity Set: Total EM Investing
Alexander Kozhemiakin of Standish and Sean Fitzgibbon of TBCAM discuss the potential risk and return benefits of expanding country diversification in emerging markets investing by combining exposures to equity, bond and currency markets in a holistic approach.
Life in the Time of Debt: Opportunities and Risks in an Age of Global Rebalancing
Investment professionals from across BNY Mellon Asset Management's global boutiques share their independent perspectives on the future of markets and economies in a historic period of global deleveraging, rebalancing and resetting.
EM Bond Opportunities Withstand Political and Inflation Uncertainty
Amid unrest in the Middle East and concern about inflation risk, Standish's Alexander Kozhemiakin remains positive about the prospects for local currency EM sovereign bonds as an asset class. He recently discussed the importance of monitoring geopolitical risk in emerging markets (EM) as well as putting EM inflation risk in the proper context.
Investing in Latin American Infrastructure
BNY Mellon ARX discusses the significant investment opportunities arising out of Latin America's efforts to renew and expand its infrastructure. Across the continent, billions of dollars are being targeted toward developing and improving transport, power transmission and telecommunication.
Global Investing: Expanding the Opportunity Set
Investment professionals from BNY Mellon Asset Management's boutiques discuss how institutional investors might frame their international investing decisions across asset classes and address the risks of investing outside home markets.
New Approaches to Global Currency Management
With the rise of global investing, Pareto argues that a well-defined currency hedging policy that distinguishes between currency translation risk at the total portfolio level and currency alpha risk in an alternatives allocation is more important than ever.
More to Bountiful Brazil Than Commodities
BNY Mellon ARX looks at Brazil's political and economic prospects amid new elections. As economic activity continues to pick up from last year's recession, the ARX team sees the increasing domestic consumption of goods and services joining commodities exports as an important source of GDP growth.
The Case for Global Thematic Investing
Newton CEO Helena Morrissey argues for a global thematic approach to investing which seeks to identify opportunities presented by broad secular trends around the world.